Friday, September 30, 2016

Trump v. Clinton, State and National polls 9/30

Tonight Nate Silver Tweeted:

I've been compiling the state polls and right now the state polls add up to roughly a Clinton lead by 2.5%. Is Silver wrong? Maybe, maybe not. It's worth noting that Silver's 538 website has Hillary Clinton up by 3.1%, not 4.3%. Silver is saying post-debate, however, and it's possible that he's including some polls that have pre-debate data. My aggregation of the states includes pre and post debate data as well. In an ideal situation I use a minimum of two polls from the past week to get my numbers. Sometimes there aren't two and I'm forced to use ones from the week before or even two weeks before. There are many states, including the largest ones, that are rarely polled. So I'm either forced to use older data or use data from Internet only polls. Those numbers give me something to go on, but I'm not excited about their accuracy.

My aggregate tells me that if Clinton is indeed leading by 4.3% expect the state polls to move further in her direction. Colorado, Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania are very close in recent state polls. If the race moves toward Donald Trump just a bit he might pick those states up. If this race were to be won by Hillary Clinton by less than 1%, I'd favor Trump to win the electoral college. It still looks like it favors him.

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