Friday, September 9, 2016

Trump v. Clinton, State and National polls 9/9

Donald Trump is doing better than he was a week ago. Real Clear Politics says the race is Clinton +2.1 nationally. Using 538, I got Clinton +2.9. If you don't like my 2.9 number, and like the 2.1, I'll make you happier at the end of this post. There were new Internet polls for all 50 states that we can add to the IPSOS and SurveyMonkey polls to give us a good idea in each state. I know my numbers are heavier on Internet only polls, but I'm using the average of recent polls, polling ended sometime in September, to give us an idea of what each state could look like if the final national total is 2.9 points.

Spreadsheet is here.

When the national margin was 4 points, Hillary Clinton had a 338-200 electoral vote victory. With the gap 1.1 points closer, her electoral margin has narrowed to 323-215. Trump takes Ohio and Nebraska. Clinton takes New Hampshire and Maine. These are the closest states Hillary Clinton is winning in the current polling.

Florida: Clinton +1.0
North Carolina: Clinton +1.0
Michigan: Clinton +2.4
Wisconsin: Clinton +2.5
New Hampshire: Clinton +3.1

If the gap is actually 2.1 points, Trump might be winning Florida and North Carolina. That'd put the electoral vote at 279-259 for Clinton. It's a thin margin. If Trump were to move ahead, even by a small margin, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire might also flip and that'd give Trump as many as 289 electoral votes, a comfortable win. So the electoral college looks like it favors Donald Trump, not Hillary Clinton, as is commonly thought. Hillary Clinton has little margin of error if the race gets much closer.

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