Friday, August 19, 2016

Trump v. Clinton, State and National polls 8/19

I updated my polls sheet based on this week's polls and found that the state-national variance is now reversed. Last week the national polls showed Clinton with a 6.4% lead while the state polls showed her with a 5.3% lead. This week the state polls have her with a 6.4% lead, while the national polls have her with a 4.5% lead. The state polls seemingly are a week behind the national polls. I could try to speculate why but it isn't that the state polls are necessarily polling a week earlier. The newest state polls are from the same week as the national polls. I use state polls that could have been done over several months, while the national poll pretty much only cover the last week.

I think national polls are a better indicator of where the race is, since there could be 5-7 national polls in the last week while even the most polled state will only get polled by 1-2 pollsters per week. Other states might get polled once a month.

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