Despite the bad Trump numbers, Marco Rubio leads his two likely opponents by 13 and 15 points in the Florida Senate race. That puts him 19 and 21 points ahead of Trump. Clinton leads Trump by 15 or 17 points in New Hampshire, depending on whether you include minor party candidates. Kelly Ayotte trails by 10. That's still a lot but if Clinton leads by 6 in Florida and 4 nationally she's not winning New Hampshire by 15-17 points. It should be more like 5-7. A Franklin and Marshall poll shows Clinton with a 11 point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania. Yet Republican Pat Toomey only trails by 1.
I still don’t see anything here to tell me this is going to be a good Democratic year. Democrats might take the Senate but that's because Republicans hold so many swing seats, not because it's a Democratic year. Democrats should make gains in the House too, due to Republicans holding so many swing seats there. I see Democrats picking up 10 now, but I anticipate I'll say it'll be 15 by November. Democrats need to take 30 seats to gain control of the House.