Thursday, August 4, 2016

No, Republicans aren't getting destroyed

Twitter is blowing up on how Donald Trump is in free fall and Hillary Clinton is up by landslide proportions. In the latest RCP average Clinton is up 4.3 points. She was up 4.1 points on July 17. Trump got a convention bounce and so did she. We’re back where we were before the conventions. People talked about convention bounces before then but now seem to have forgotten. Clinton’s bounce may dissipate and Trump could gain in about a week or so. We should remember that Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 4 points. Clinton may yet win big but nothing in polls is showing that.

Despite the bad Trump numbers, Marco Rubio leads his two likely opponents by 13 and 15 points in the Florida Senate race. That puts him 19 and 21 points ahead of Trump. Clinton leads Trump by 15 or 17 points in New Hampshire, depending on whether you include minor party candidates. Kelly Ayotte trails by 10. That's still a lot but if Clinton leads by 6 in Florida and 4 nationally she's not winning New Hampshire by 15-17 points. It should be more like 5-7. A Franklin and Marshall poll shows Clinton with a 11 point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania. Yet Republican Pat Toomey only trails by 1.

I still don’t see anything here to tell me this is going to be a good Democratic year. Democrats might take the Senate but that's because Republicans hold so many swing seats, not because it's a Democratic year. Democrats should make gains in the House too, due to Republicans holding so many swing seats there. I see Democrats picking up 10 now, but I anticipate I'll say it'll be 15 by November. Democrats need to take 30 seats to gain control of the House.

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