Wednesday, June 8, 2016

California Primary Results: Turnout

Turnout, as expected, was big. There have already been 5.9 million ballots counted and there could be another million left to count. The 2012 primary only had 5.3 million voters. The 2008 primary had 9.1 million but it was early in the process and both parties had competitive primaries. People were lamenting low turnout in 2014 and trying to come up with solutions for how to increase it. Turns out that the crazy idea of having candidates people care about on the ballot is all you need.

As I also expected the turnout was heavily Democratic. The two party Presidential primary vote was 69% Democratic and 31% Republican. The two party open primary senate vote was 70% Democratic and 30% Republican. The best the Democrats have ever done in a Presidential election is 62% of the two party vote. Barack Obama got that in 2012. While we expected the primary to be more Democratic based on new registrations it shouldn't have been this Democratic. Considering Mrs. Clinton doesn't have nearly the appeal that the President does I'd normally think she wouldn't do as well as he did. But these additional Democrats could get her to 62%. If everything breaks right for Hillary Clinton I can't see her getting more than 64% of the two party vote. That'd be a record.

We'd be entering unexplored territory at 64%/36%. so 69%/31% or 70%/30% is really unexplored. I'd be shocked if Republicans don't do better in November, possibly quite a few points better.

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