Monday, June 20, 2016

CA Primary: Final Democratic Vote Totals

There are only 400,000 VBM ballots left to be counted in the California primary. There are another 600,000 provisionals/other. People vote provisionally on election day if they are VBM and haven't presented a ballot or if they aren't on the rolls at their polling place. In some cases they've already voted. In others they aren't a legal voter at that precinct. So some of these ballots won't be valid. Roughly 60% of the ballots so far have had votes for Democrats for President. So I’m guessing there are 530,000 Democratic ballots left. If Sanders wins those 51.6%-47.7%, roughly what he's winning the vote by the last few days. He’ll gain 21,000 votes. Unfortunately, he's 460,000 votes behind. So the final margin should drop to roughly 8.5%. That's better than on election night, or now, but won't make the election close. My final prediction before election night was Clinton by 6%, but I initially thought she'd win by double digits.

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