Thursday, December 5, 2013

California Gubernatorial PPIC Poll Out

No sooner do we have the first 2014 California Gubernatorial poll out than we have the second one. PPIC is out with a poll and they have Brown at 46%, Donnelly at 16%, and Maldonado at 7%. Kashkari wasn't included in the poll. Brown takes only 12% of Republicans in this poll, compared to 17% in the Field poll. This poll is 43%D/29%R, similar to the Field Poll. While that's a reasonable breakdown for the November 2014 election, it's too big a spread for a primary.

One positive with such a Democratic electorate is that the generic ballot test can be reflective of the actual November 2014 results. Democrats lead 49%-39%. The 2012 House vote was 62.0%-38.0% in favor of the Democrats. This was partially skewed because there were 56 Democrats and only 46 Republicans on the ballot. Democrats won 4 congressional seats by 6% or less, so even losing the congressional vote 58%-42% would probably swing a few seats to the GOP. There were 3 other seats that were decided by 8-11%. A 10% loss would put those in play also. Of course I'm skeptical of any poll taken at a time when Democratic popularity is at such a low point.

Some believe that Donnelly finishing top two would be a disaster for the GOP. His favorability numbers in both polls don't indicate that. He's 12% favorable/8% unfavorable in the Field poll and 7% favorable/8% unfavorable in the PPIC poll. The PPIC poll has favorability broken down by party. Donnelly has a 7%/8% spread with Democrats and 7%/9% spread with independents. He's been a fairly controversial assemblyman and yet that hasn't had a huge negative impact on his favorability ratings. He is largely unknown. So it's possible that Jerry Brown could paint him negatively, but Brown will do that whoever he's running against. I'm not certain he can make Donnelly look so bad that he's a drag on the rest of the ticket.

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