Member v. Member Congressional Races Part 2

LA-3: Landry(R) v. Boustany (R)
It was inevitable that two Republicans were going to face off in Louisiana. Landry was savaged in the process. His district was divided four ways between the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th in such a way that no district is made up of more than 24.5% of his constituents. Most of this district belongs to Boustany, so he'd appear to be the favorite. Landry, however, is tea party favorite and his popularity might not adhere to district lines.

Louisiana has an unusual primary system, that's similar to California. In California, everyone competes on June 5 and the top 2 move on to November. In Louisiana, everyone competes on election day, November 6. If one candidate gets 50%, he wins. If not, the top two compete in December. So this one will go all the way to election day. And maybe beyond.

MI-14: Clarke (D) v. Peters (D)
This one has ruffled quite a few feathers. Gary Peters, like Jeff Landry, had his district torn up so much that there's no new district where he has more constituents than anyone else. He could've challenged Republicans Mike Rogers or Thad McCotter, both of whom are in districts that Barack Obama won in 2008. The problem here is that even if he won that uphill battle, he'd have to defend the district from a Republican challenger every two years.

The other choices were MI-9, a district that is mostly Sander Levin's old MI-12, or MI-14, a majority Black district. The good news on MI-14 is that only 38.5% of it is currently repped by Hansen Clarke and it's a safe Democratic seat. The bad news is that Peters has upset the Black community, some of whom are accusing a White man of trying to steal something that belongs to the Black community.

Yeah, that's not going to look good.

NJ-9: Rothman (D) v. Pascrall (D)
This one couldn't have gone better for the GOP. The new NJ-5 consists of 79% of Republican Scott Garrett's district and 21% belonging to Democrat Steve Rothman. The district leans Republican, but Democrats' chances of taking the seat would increase if Garrett were challenged by Rothman. Rothman instead chose the 9th, as it's safe Democratic and has more of his constituents than Pascrall's. The Democratic party is none too happy about this.

OH-9: Kaptur (D) v. Kucinich (D)

Ohio was torn asunder because the state lost two districts. Only one new district is made up of more than 77% of the old one. This led to some difficult choices. More of each of their constituents are here and it's a safe Democratic district. Kaptur could've challenged Republican Bob Latta in OH-5, but that would've been a suicide mission, especially considering it wouldn't have included her Toledo base.

Kucinich, on the other hand, had a lot of choices. He was considering running in Washington state, so it's obvious he doesn't feel he needs his current constituents to win. Kucinich was left with three choices, challenge Kaptur, challenge Marcia Fudge (D) in a majority Black district, or take on Republican freshman Jim Renacci in a lean Republican district.

Initially this district had more of Kucinich's constituents. In the final deal, however, that was reversed, leading to speculation that Democrats were trying to get rid of Kucinich. Dennis isn't beloved in his own caucus. He elected to try here and we should see a knockdown drag out fight.

People think that Kucinich filing for this race ends his flirtation with running elsewhere, but Ohio has a March 6 primary. If Kucinich loses, he could still move to Washington and establish residency to run in their later primary. At that point he'd have nothing to lose if he made that decision.

OH-16: Sutton (D) v. Renacci (R)
This is only one of two Republican v. Democrat match-ups. Congressmen will almost always choose a safe seat they only have to beat a fellow party member once over one that they'll have to defend every two years from a well financed challenger. Betty Sutton's district was torn apart six ways. That meant she didn't have a constituent advantage anywhere but had choices. They were:

OH-4 (10% of her constituents) While Democrats would cheer the opportunity to take down Jim Jordan, only the Speaker has a more Republican seat.

OH-7 (14% of her constituents) She would've taken on Republican freshman Bob Gibbs in a lean Republican district. She probably considered it, but had better alternatives.

OH-9 (15% of her constituents) This one was already a little to crowded. She'd be unlikely to beat both Kucinich and Kaptur and running here with two other members of her caucus would really annoy Democrats.

OH-11 (17% of her constituents) This would mean challenging Marcia Fudge in a Black majority district. Even if she won, which was unlikely, she'd have big headaches. Just ask Gary Peters.

OH-13 (18% of her constituents) She had to seriously consider this one. It's a safe Democratic district that only had one of her caucus and wasn't majority Black. Since most of the district belongs to Tim Ryan, however, winning was probably a long shot.

OH-16 (21% of her constituents) This district has Sutton's home and the most constituents. It leans Republican, about the same as OH-7. I can see why she chose it, but I wouldn't have been surprised with a different choice.

There may be an additional primary battle in NC-4, but that's still up in the air.