Medicare Won't Factor into 2012

Medicare was an issue with yesterday's special election, causing the media and the parties to run with the idea that it'll be a big issue in 2012. It won't.

In the spring of 2005 Republicans took on Social Security reform. The effort generated a lot of opposition and was very unpopular. Yet it wasn't an issue in the 2006 elections. The issues were the Iraq War, Republican ethics scandals, and Hurricane Katrina.

In early 2007 the Iraq War was going badly and was a huge albatross around the neck of George W. Bush and the Republicans. Yet it wasn't an issue in the 2008 elections. The issues were the economy, the fiscal crisis, and George W. Bush's unpopularity.

In early 2009 there was huge opposition to the Democrats' stimulus plan. Yet it was only a minor issue in the 2010 elections. The issues were the healthcare bill and the back room shenanigans involved with it, the deficit, and the economy.

The factors that influenced elections were pretty much long term issues, usually those that became a law. Once Social Security reform was dead it ceased to be an issue, because no one felt the impact of a bill that didn't happen, and Republicans abandoned it. The Iraq War was badly mismanaged but by the time the 2008 election came around the war was going well. The stimulus drew a lot of opposition, but the bill's expenditures didn't make the news after that.

The healthcare bill was in the news for nearly a year and once it was enacted into law the Republicans could use the bill as a weapon, even if their claims weren't true. People knew something was coming with the healthcare bill. Nothing was coming with Social Security reform.

Other big issues, Iraq, the economy, President Bush's unpopularity, lasted a long time and were issues that wouldn't go away all the way up to the election.

In 2010 Democrats tried to use Social Security as a weapon against the Republicans ("they're going to take your Social Security away!"), but it was an issue the Republicans weren't pushing and wasn't in the news. It likely didn't register as an issue, especially compared to things that the public could tangibly see every day.

If the Republicans abandon Medicare reform or go with a smaller change that isn't controversial, there'll be nothing to use against them. The 2012 election will be fought over issues that people will experience throughout 2012. The issue was big now because the Ryan budget is fresh. By November 2012 there'll be another budget and other big issues. They can only ride this one out if Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot.

There is an issue that might have legs, however. The bills in several states that limit union collective bargaining rights could be a rallying point. The differences here are that these are laws that passed that people will actually feel or anticipate feeling in the future.