Huckabee's Out

Mike Huckabee's exit makes things a lot easier for the other candidates. I still maintain Mitt Romney is the frontrunner.

All the polls have him way up in NH. It's his backyard. He blew it in 2008 because McCain is very popular there, but he's learned the lesson. Romney had a great organization last time around and it may be better this time. Romney and Scott Brown are old friends and Brown will campaign hard for him there. It won't be close.

He wins Nevada in a landslide because the caucus voters will likely be 25% Mormon. If Romney can get a second again in Iowa, he can afford a weak finish in South Carolina.

Then it's a question of what states are next. There are still 13 states that violate party rules in January and February, although it looks like Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Wisconsin, and New Jersey are going to move. New York hasn't introduced a bill to move, but they haven't said they want to go early.

That leaves Minnesota, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan before March 6. Mitt was born and raised in Michigan and should have a lock on that primary as well. He'll push hard for Michigan to come before Super Tuesday.

With the way the calendar is likely to be, Romney will be the front runner.