California Congressional Races 2012

The conventional wisdom seems to be that the Democrats will pick up several congressional districts, even if the districts are created fairly.

Bull dung.

These people are looking at the McCain-Obama 2008 race and plugging in those numbers into new districts. The average California statewide race breaks down as 55% Democratic - 45% Republican. Obama beat McCain 62%-38%. McCain was 12% below 50%, while you can expect a Republican to only be 5% below, however, and that's without adjusting for the advantage Republican incumbents have.

If McCain-Obama isn't representative, what is? I chose Whitman-Brown. Brown won the race 58%-42%. That's still above what Republicans will likely do, but it's closer. So these numbers are likely conservative estimates.

Orange County - Whitman won the county 60%-40%. Whitman won 32 of the 35 Orange County cities and won nearly 70% of the unincorporated areas. The only significant Democratic stronghold is Santa Ana. That means that you'd have to gerrymander Orange County heavily for the Democrats in order to get a Democratic leaning district. Republicans should pick up a seat here. Loretta Sanchez is a goner.

San Diego County - San Diego could go a bit better for the Democrats. Republicans now have a 3-2 edge in the congressional delegation, but there likely will be two safe Republican districts, two likely Democratic districts, and one that could be a toss-up.

Inland Empire - Democrats have only one seat in San Bernardino-Riverside and they should have a shot at several districts. The good news for Democrats is that they lost Riverside County by 8 points, but San Bernardino by only 1. The problem could be that Democratic strongholds (e.g. Ontario, San Bernardino, Fontana) are all close to each other. Redistricting could break badly if, as I suspect, too many of these cities are in one district.

Los Angeles County - The good news for Democrats is that every Republican seat could be in play. David Dreier might have it especially tough, but as long as San Dimas, La Verne, and Claremont are in his district he'll have a shot. If both Pomona and West Covina don't end up in his district he may have more than a shot. Buck McKeon and Elton Gallegly could be seriously challenged too. On the Democratic side, they could have trouble in a district that spans San Gabriel Valley cities like Hacienda Heights and Diamond Bar, especially if they're paired with Orange County cities immediately to the south.

Central California - The story is better for Republicans here. The Central Valley is so Republican that it takes a gerrymander to get them seats. In a more balanced redistricting both Jim Costa and Dennis Cordoza would be in trouble. Like Dreier they'd still have a shot. On the coast Lois Capps should end up in a competitive district, albeit one she's favored in.

Northern California - Not much change should be expected here. Dan Lungren should once again be in a competitive district for the Republicans while Jerry McNerney should be in one for the Democrats.

My mapping gave Democrats 24 safe seats and 4 likely seats. Republicans had 7 safe seats and 3 likely seats. That puts 15 seats as being very competitive, although I expect more to lean Republican than lean Democratic. In a good year the Democrats could certainly pick up 8 or 9 seats, but in a good Republican year the GOP could pick up 6. In a neutral year I'd put the breakdown at 34-19 or 35-18, a pick up of 1 seat for the Democrats.

We won't know until the districts are finalized but don't count on a map that'll let the Democrats easily pick up 3 or 4 seats.