Redistricting in Iowa and Arkansas

The congressional maps in Iowa and Arkansas and Iowa are done. The results seem to benefit the Republicans. First here's Iowa's 2010 congressional vote as it was in 2010 and how it would've been with the new districts:

Since these are 2010 numbers, they'll probably be about 2-3 points more Democratic in 2012 than they were in 2010. Iowa, like the rest of the Midwest, has been trending Republican. So it might not be that high.

There are two ways to look at this. Republicans had two safe districts and shots at three other districts. The new configuration only has one. So the Republicans could easily end up losing the district. On the other hand, the 3rd probably leans Republican and the GOP has a better shot at the 1st and 2nd. Republican win?

The 1st moves towards the Democrats, but not by much. The 4th, the only one the Democrats hold, is a lot more likely to be in play. Considering the Democrats controlled all the levers this is a very good map for the GOP.