While many people have tried to rate the races without knowing what the districts look like, the recent maps show that a judgement like that should only be made after the maps are approved. So I'm only including districts I know about and those in states with 2 seats. They won't change that much.
Republican Seats
MT-AL Likely Republican
NH-1 Likely Republican
NH-2 Toss-up
LA-4 Likely Republican
AR-1 Lean Republican
Until I know the maps I'm going to treat the district # that won't be around in 2012 as the lost district. Thus, Republicans lose IA-5, IL-19, LA-7, MO-9, NY-29, OH-18, and PA-19. It looks like MO-3, currently a Democratic seat, will replace MO-9 as a Safe Republican district. I'll wait until I see the final map and include MO-3 as a flip if the district is drawn that way.
Democratic Seats
IA-1 Lean Democrat
IA-2 Lean Democrat
IA-3 Toss-up
AR-4 Likely Democrat
OK-2 Likely Democrat
Democrats will lose MA-10, MI-15, NJ-13, NY-28, and OH-17.
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