Government Shutdown

The conventional wisdom about the 1995-1996 government shutdowns is that Bill Clinton won and the Republicans lost. Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996, after having very low approval ratings two years before. It's likely that Clinton did benefit, although Bob Dole was certainly an underwhelming opponent.

The Republicans didn't get punished as a result. In the 1920 election the Republicans picked up 62 seats. Two years later the Democrats won 76. In the next 60+ years a wave election was followed by a wave the other way in the next election with the exception of the 1930-1936 and 1974-1976 periods. Both of those were extraordinary circumstances, the Depression and Watergate. The Democrats took control of the House and Senate in 1932. The Republicans recaptured both houses in 1946, only to lose them both in 1948. They took both them again in 1952, only to lose both again in 1954.

In 1994, the Republicans took 54 Democratic House seats in 1994, along with 8 Senate seats. They once again had the majority in both houses. Heading into the 1996 elections, the Republicans held 236 seats in the House. The Democrats had at least 242 seats in the House after every election from 1958 to 1992. They should've won at least 46 seats, probably more because their President won re-election.

The Senate numbers were similarly in favor of the Democrats. Republicans were defending 19 seats to the Democrats 15. The party with more seats usually has a net negative. This happened in both 1972 and 1984 when the Republican President won in a landslide.

The Republicans were likely to get shellacked in 1996. They didn't. The GOP lost 9 seats in 1996, retaining a 22 seat advantage over the Democrats. The conventional wisdom is that if a party doesn't win a seat in a wave election, they won't win it in the next election. Yet the Republicans won 13 Democratic seats.

The Republicans retained 18 of their 19 seats, and managed to pick up 3 of the Democrats' 15 seats. Thus, they increased their majority. This was the first time since 1928-1930 that Republicans won the House and Senate and didn't lose them in the next election.

If that's being blamed, the Republicans should hope for the blame again.