Monday, February 28, 2011

Who's Hurt By Redistricting? Further Analysis

California - There's been a great deal of speculating for California, with some of it focusing on Republican David Dreier and Republican Jerry Lewis considering retirement. A number of people have drawn maps in a non-partisan way and they favor Democrats. California is so big that you could draw compact districts ten times and come up with ten different maps.

Florida - Republicans are drawing this map, but Fair Districts Florida will hamper them. I'm pretty sure Republican Allen West is a goner because Palm Beach and Broward Counties are very Democratic. Any compact district is going to be very Democratic. Others will be in danger but speculation is also difficult.

Georgia - Republicans will try to eliminate Democrat Sanford Bishop by making his district more Republican.

Illinois - Holding 11 seats in a Democratic state where the Democrats are in charge of redistricting puts Republicans in a bad situation. Peter Roskum and Judy Biggert figure to be in the most trouble as their suburban districts border Democratic city districts. Mixing the city and suburbs should make their districts very Democratic. The further a Republican is from Chicago the safer he or she is. Outside of the East St. Louis seat it's difficult to draw a downstate Democratic seat. Bob Dold and Randy Hultgren are the next most likely to be in trouble, but Adam Kinzinger and Joe Walsh could see their districts become more Democratic.

Iowa - This could hurt all the Democrats but Democrat Tom Boswell will be in the most trouble.

Louisiana - Republicans Landry and Boustany figure to face off, with Landry more likely out.

Maryland - Andy Harris could be in trouble if the Democrats try to split the Eastern Shore into more than one district. Expect an ugly map.

Massachusetts - There's no indication of who might be in trouble yet. Since the delegation is all Democrats, it'll be a Democrat.

Michigan - I think Democrat Gary Peters is the most likely to lose his seat.

Missouri - Democrat Russ Carnahan shouldn't make long term reservations.

New Jersey - Speculation focuses on Democrat Rush Holt and Republican Leonard Lance, but New Jersey is less clear than other states.

New York - Democrat Carolyn McCarthy looks like a goner. Upstate you can speculate on almost anybody. The 26th is vacant now, but there will be a new rep there.

North Carolina - A Republican gerrymander could place Democrats McIntyre, Kissell, Shuler, and Miller in danger. That's not one of them. All of them could have more Republican districts with the same map.

Ohio - Democrats Betty Sutton and Dennis Kucinich are in the most trouble. A Republican might be hurt but it's too early to know whom.

Pennsylvania - Democrat Mark Critz looks like a goner.

Others will surely be hurt by redistricting, but these are the most likely.

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