Charlie Cook, an elections expert, kind of gets it. He understands what I've been saying for the last two months. Democrats regaining the House is highly unlikely, although not impossible. The circumstances need to be right for a wave election and it's doubtful the climate will change into those circumstances. He mentions a government shut down, but that happened in 1995 and the Republicans only lose 8 seats in 1996. Wave elections occur almost always as a negative reaction to the sitting President or with an election of a new President. The Democrats can't benefit from either of these scenarios.
That's not to say the Democrats won't pick up seats. I'm pretty sure they will. I'd say they'd end up around 207 after the 2012 election if Obama is elected and 195 if he loses.
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