Thursday, February 10, 2011

Top Ten Senate Races

With the retirement announcements from John Kyl and Jim Webb, it's a good idea to look at the 2012 senate races.

10. New Jersey - Bob Menendez isn't a strong candidate. The Republicans, however, have yet to put anyone up against him.

9. Florida - Florida is trending Republican and the GOP looks to have strong candidates. Bill Nelson could be on shaky ground.

8. Nevada - John Ensign's affair damages him as a candidate. If Dean Heller is the nominee it'll move off the list. The Democrats have no one yet.

7. Michigan - Democrats got clobbered here in 2010. While there's no serious challenge to Debbie Stabenow yet, this race is worth watching.

6. Ohio - First race I'd definitely call a toss-up. Republicans have some strong candidates, but none have announced. Sherrod Brown is pretty far to the left and this state is trending Republican.

5. Missouri - Another state that Republicans should do well in 2012. The candidates so far are Sarah Steelman and Ed Martin. Both could put up a strong challenge.

4. Virginia - This is the first state I'd put as favored to flip. George Allen is in for the GOP, while the Democrats don't have a candidate yet.

3. Montana - I'm negative on Jon Tester's re-election chances. He won by the smallest margin in a Democratic year against a scandal tarred opponent. Danny Rehberg is a proven statewide candidate and this is a red state.

2. Nebraska - Cornhusker Kickback. Bruning. Need I say more?

1. North Dakota - Red state and Democrats have no bench.

Not on the list: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Maine, Arizona, West Virginia - All these states except Arizona have strong incumbents. The GOP looks to have better candidates in Arizona.

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