Thursday, December 23, 2010

Redistricting Advantage

Chris Cillizza is the first mainstream media member to observe what I did last month. The GOP currently has a 62-29 advantage in districts that are between R+4 and D+4. The middle right now is a Republican 228-207 advantage. Republicans are 14 above that. If they're lucky, the Republicans can use redistricting to keep their net losses at 5-7 instead of 15-20. Republicans would need an electorate like 2010 and the same advantage with independents. They're not going to get that.

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