The U.S. Census numbers came out today. Those are conservative cheers you’re hearing today. Assuming the Republicans win all the states they won in 2008, the GOP has picked up 6 electoral votes. If Republicans lose any of those states, Obama will have won. Of course that only changes the gap from 192 to 180, not exactly close to a win. The path to victory will have to include Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina, all close losses.
The likely 2012 swing states will be Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire. All these states went to Obama, but all of them will have a Republican governor and Republican control of both houses of the legislature. If one candidate takes three of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Michigan, he’ll win. If the candidates split those four states, 20 electoral votes will be left with New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The candidate winning Florida might only need win the smallest of the states, New Hampshire, to get to 270 electoral votes.
I don’t think Nevada, Colorado, Washington, New Jersey, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, or New Mexico will be swing states, because the 2010 elections were more split. Seven of those were won by Obama in 2008, with Minnesota, Maine, and New Mexico were the best for the GOP in 2010.
No comments:
Post a Comment