The House: Endangered Species

It’s hard enough to fight a civil war in your own party, let alone taking on the other party. Blue Dogs are fighting Progressives while Moderates are fighting Conservatives. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the 94 House moderates (52 Blue Dog, 42 RMSP) are at the top of the endangered lists. Most of them are in districts where the Cook Partisan Index is close to even or skews to the other party.

How bad is it?

Moderates in both parties are nearly three times as likely to have a competitive election. If they lose, however, they may not be replaced by a moderate from the other party. Many of these districts skew heavily to the other party. A candidate closer to the party line is just as likely to replace the congressman. Parker Griffith was a Blue Dog. When he switched parties he didn’t join the Republican Main Street Partnership. There is only one RMSP member in the South. Chances are that there won’t be 94 moderates in the 112th Congress.