Massachusetts has the largest single party delegation on Capitol Hill. Since 1996 there have been 77 elections for the Senate and House in Massachusetts. The Democrats have won all 77. This is a very liberal state. That’s hardly news. Any election is usually a slam dunk for Democrats. Everyone assumed that whoever the Democrats nominated to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat would win going away. Republicans haven’t done well in special elections. They lost all four 2009 races after losing all the specials in 2008.
A few days ago Rasmussen came out with a poll that had Republican Scott Brown within nine points of Democrat Martha Coakley. Democrats were able to dismiss this because they believe that Rasmussen is a biased pollster. Today Public Policy Polling, a Democratic pollster, came out with a poll that has Scott Brown ahead by one point. I guess Rasmussen might not be as biased for the Republicans as they think.
Parties spin losses. The Democrats were able to spin the Virginia and New Jersey losses with fairly plausible rationalizations. There will be no spinning a Massachusetts loss. How did this happen?
1. Coakley isn’t that popular in Massachusetts. Progressives liked Alan Khazei. Their enthusiasm for Coakley is tepid at best. She has some strong negatives in Massachusetts. Brown isn’t very well known, but those that know him tend to have a favorable opinion of him.
2. The core of Barack Obama’s coalition can’t get excited for Coakley. African Americans and those under 25 never need a reason not to vote. If they’d shown up for John Kerry he would’ve won. You need to be dynamic charismatic candidate like Barack Obama to even interest these two groups. They didn’t show up for Creigh Deeds or Jon Corzine. It doesn’t appear they’ll be motivated for anyone other than Barack Obama.
3. While Democrats aren’t interested Republicans are. In Massachusetts 66% of GOP are “very excited” while 48% of Democrats are. Independents are not Democrats for a reason. They appear to be overwhelmingly switching from the Democrats to the Republicans.
America doesn’t have a favorable view of the Republican Party. This actually works in the GOP’s favor. Democrats can’t play up Republican negatives. America knows them and still wants to vote Republican. They dislike the Democrats and the Democrats are in control. America will vote for a turnip over a Democrat right now. They can shout, “Do you really want to return to the Bush years?” at the top of their lungs all they want. Right now Bush’s recession doesn’t seem so bad. At least we had jobs.
The Democrats thought America bought what they were selling, instead of not wanting what the Republicans were selling. So they set out on a go it alone hyper-partisan agenda. And now America hates them too. Of course if Republicans start believing America wants what they’re selling they’ll be voted out shortly after they’re voted in.
I don’t know if Coakley can lose, but that we’re considering that she could is amazing. Democrats have won every election in Massachusetts regardless whether Clinton won or Bush won. Now, a year after the most popular Democrat won, they’ve dropped far enough that they can lose this seat.
No comments:
Post a Comment