Massachusetts: What It Means

There’s been a lot written on the upcoming election, including by me last weekend. People have talked about the significance, either dismissing it or proclaiming it’s huge. Special elections can tell you something about what’s going to happen. After all, Democrats won all the House special elections between 2006 and 2008. This election is enormously significant in a way that the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races were not.

Obama had over 60% of the popular vote in 11 states including Massachusetts. If we look by Congressional district we find that Obama won 41 of 52 California districts, 79%, 12 of 15 in Michigan, 80%, 24 of 29 in New York, 83%, 16 of 19 in Illinois, 84%, and 7 of 8 in Wisconsin, 87%. He won all 10 Massachusetts Congressional districts. Obama didn’t just beat McCain by 26 points statewide. He beat McCain in all 10 Massachusetts congressional districts with the closest two districts being 12 and 17 point wins. There really was no pocket of McCain support.

All 10 Massachusetts congressmen are Democrats. In 2008 six of them ran unopposed. The other four beat their Republican opponent by 52, 46, 43, and 40 points. No one had to break a sweat.

Regardless whether he wins or loses Brown will beat Coakley in several congressional districts. Most of the districts have a similar Democratic skew but the Boston and suburban 8th is significantly heavy Democratic. Coakley’s total will likely include a high percentage from the 8th. Thus Coakley could win the election and possibly only win 4 of the 10 congressional districts.

Thus, a Republican will get more votes than a Democrat in anywhere from 3-7 congressional districts. A Republican hasn’t won a congressional district in Massachusetts since 1994. CQ Politics and Cook both rank the Massachusetts congressional races ranging from safe to safe. Suddenly that might come into question. The Republicans would actually attempt to field serious candidates in the previously safe Massachusetts districts and possibly in many other safe districts nationwide. CQ believes the Democrats will have to defend 73 districts. Cook says 85. None on either of those lists are in Massachusetts. After Tuesday there may be a few Massachusetts districts on there.