I painted a bleak picture for Crist, maybe a little too bleak. To run even with Rubio he was going to need something more like this:
At the time, however, Crist was doing better with Republicans and Democrats. Well, PPP has a new poll out of likely voters.
It’s worse for Crist than he was doing, but not nearly as bad as I predicted. Rubio’s strong showing with Democrats is a surprise, but I’m not surprised that Crist now trails by 49% among Republicans. He trailed by 31% in July. Crist needs to beat Meek with Democrats and a larger lead with independents if he’s to win. I was counting on a 39% R/35% D/26% I electorate. PPP has a 42% R/42% D/14% I electorate. Since Crist is picking up the most votes with independents that’d be a killer. With my electorate he trails by 5.5% instead of 8. Still, it’s hard for me to see a road to victory for Crist.
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