Polling

There are approximately 113 Democratic districts which are considered in play. I’ve seen polls on 77 of those. Republicans were ahead in 38, Democrats 37, and 2 were even. You’d think the remaining 37 districts would be ones that are unlikely to switch. Yet there are districts in that group (LA-3, NY-29, KS-3, TN-6) that almost certainly will switch parties. While Democrats lead in half the districts, they’re all Democratic districts. Winning half in those means big losses.

Of the 22 Republican districts that might be in play, Republicans lead in 10, Democrats lead in 3, and 9 haven’t been polled.

Extrapolating these results for the remaining districts, you’d have 57 districts switching from Democrat to Republican and 5 going the other way.

Many of these House polls are Republican campaign internals or done by We Ask America and American Action Forum. American Action Forum is a Republican pollster. I don’t believe We Ask America is. Some people want to dismiss these polls, especially a campaign’s internal poll. You shouldn’t dismiss a poll simply because it was done for a campaign. The campaign wants to get an accurate poll. If a pollster fudged the numbers, they wouldn’t get hired again. If it’s a reputable pollster, you should take that into account.

Of course, a campaign can fudge the numbers they release. A pollster might not contractually allow that. If they get a reputation of being a poor pollster they won’t get a lot of business. Study the methodology, look at the questions (if available), and check to see if they’re using registered or likely voters.

The most telling indicator of a poll is a campaign’s reaction to an opponent’s poll being released. If they don’t release their own poll, you have to assume it says the same thing. After independent pollster Reuters/Ipsos released a poll showing Michael Bennett down nine points in the Colorado Senate race, he immediately came out with a poll having him up four points. You can make your own judgement of which one to believe, but all the districts that don’t answer bad poll numbers are fairly telling in their silence.

Certainly the likely voter could change. The Democratic hope that Republicans won’t be highly motivated is a false one. Republican enthusiasm has increased since Scott Brown won in January, and Democrats should know from 2006 and 2008 the job isn’t done until you vote.

Turning around the independent vote could work in some cases. Harry Reid’s “be afraid of Sharron Angle, she’s going to steal your medicare and social security” may genuinely make people afraid. Never underestimate the politics of fear. Very few Republican candidates are Sharron Angle and few Democrats have the skill and resources Reid does. It seems unlikely that Democrats can turn independents in most cases.

Democrats could motivate their base, but their efforts so far have met with failure. Many on the far left feel let down and believe that if congress had just closed Guantanamo, gotten out of Afghanistan, and instituted single payer healthcare everything would be fine. Their disappointment may rival Republican disappointment that kept them home in 2006 and 2008.