We had another 256k VBM returns statewide bumping the overall return rate from 10.2% to 12.3%. Overall, Democrats have returned 10.5% of their ballots, while Republicans have returned 18.6% of theirs. NPP voters have only returned 8.8% of theirs. They always are lower propensity voters.
We had another big add for CA-10. It’s gone from being one of the lowest rates of return to one of the highest. The return differential was R+1, enough to bump the overall numbers from even to R+1 due to rounding. Jeff Denham won in 2016 with a D+1 VBM return.
CA-16 moved from D+7 to D+8. It was D+11 in 2014 when it was close so the district is still in the watch mode.
CA-21 went the other way, from D+7 to D+6. David Valadao won by 13 points with a D+11 VBM electorate in 2016. It’s hard to see the electorate becoming anything that’ll endanger him.
CA-39 had returns that were R+20 yesterday and remains an R+18 VBM electorate. It was R+12 in June. I don’t care what the polls say, an electorate like this should give Young Kim at least the 8 point win she had in June.
CA-45 had returns that were R+18 and this district remains R+17. With an R+15 electorate she won by 6 points. That was a rather dramatic advantage for the Democrats but if she won with an R+15 VBM electorate an R+17 should be safe.
CA-48 moved in the other direction from R+17 to R+16. An R+10 VBM electorate gave Republicans a 7 point win in June.
CA-49 had an enormous San Diego VBM dump. The district went from 11% of VBM ballots returned to 16%. There’s good news for both sides here. The ballots were R+4, lowering the overall VBMs from R+13 to R+10. This is good news for Democrat Mike Levin because that’s a significant move. If he keeps getting moves like that he’ll win.
On the other hand, the day was R+4 overall. In the primary the VBM electorate was R+1, better than even the best Democratic day. And that led to a 3 point Democratic win. If the general electorate votes the same way an R+4 day would be even. If Diane Harkey’s worst day is treading water when she’s in the lead she should win.
On the other hand, in 2016 the margin was less than a point with an R+8 VBM electorate. It’s conceivable that VBMs could get into that range again. That said, the national narrative is that Diane Harkey is toast. These VBM numbers indicate she may have a decent chance.
Democrats have blanketed the airwaves with ads. Democrats always say money shouldn’t buy elections but they’re trying to do just that. Michael Bloomberg’s dark money PAC is coming in with a huge buy for the last two weeks. The problem with that is that many Californians will have voted long before he tries to buy the election for Democrats.
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