Monday, June 4, 2018

Things to Know Before the California Primary

The California primary is tomorrow and you're very interested in it. I'm assuming that because you're reading this. You should be getting all your Vote By Mail data from Political Data here. Shout out to Paul Mitchell and the team there. They provide data that's invaluable.

Gavin Newsom and John Cox will finish first and second in the governor's race. Yes, I know I've written it before but too many people seem to think Antonio Villaraigosa has a shot. He never really did. There are too many Democratic candidates, too few Republicans candidates, and enough Republican voters that Cox will beat Villaraigosa by a comfortable margin. I think Travis Allen will finish ahead of Villaraigosa more likely than not. One thing to watch is the percentage of the vote Democrats and Republicans get. In 2014 it was around 57% Democratic 43% Republican. In 2016 the Presidential and Senate races were around 70% Democratic 30% Republican. I'm thinking it'll be midway between the two. When we see, we'll figure out what it means.

There's not enough information to predict if Kevin de Leon will finish second in the senate race. Republicans have a history of voting for Republicans in top two. Will the Republicans here get as many votes as the Republicans in the governor's race? I say yes, but it's something to watch for. Will Republican votes consolidate behind one candidate, most likely James Bradley? If so, De Leon doesn't advance. So I'll be watching how the total votes compare.

In 2014, any race where Democrats got 50% or more of the two party vote went Democratic in November. If Republicans got 50-55% it was competitive in November. If Republicans got 55%+ they won in November. The 2016 vote was more apples to apples. Whoever won in June won in November. As I mentioned earlier, November 2014 was a Republican election but the primary was even more Republican. November 2016 was a Democratic election but the primary was even more Democratic. That doesn't make it easy to figure out how to translate the primary vote but any district where Republicans get 50-55% should be one to watch.

The possibility of a shutout in a specific district is real, although unlikely. As Paul Mitchell has Tweeted, however, there are enough congressional districts where shutouts are possible that one probably will happen. The districts that most concern people are CA-39, 48, and 49. So watch for those. I'm going to predict that CA-50 is going to have a Democratic shutout. That's Duncan Hunter's district. It's probably too Republican for Democrats to have a shot in November. Hunter, however, has been caught up in a scandal, however, and if a scandal blows up it sometimes doesn't matter how partisan a district is.

A lot has been written about how this year will be a big Democratic wave. And it might be. We should still look at the results in Democratic districts like CA-7. Don't dismiss the idea they could be competitive this year.

The first results usually come in around 8:40 Pacific. These are the vote by mail ballots received before election day. In 2012 and 2014, these were very Republican. In 2016 they weren't. So we don't know if the results will get more Democratic after these are announced. Likewise Democrats did even better than the election day count in the post-election day count in 2012 and 2014. They didn't in 2016. There are a lot of ballots counted after election day. Hopefully the election day ballots will give us an idea the way those will go. I'll try to figure that out Wednesday.

The partisan results changed quite a bit after election day in 2012 and 2014 with Democrats gaining quite a bit. What doesn't change is how individual Democrats or Republicans do. If two Democrats are close for second and third in a district the candidate who is in second place on election day is going to end up in second after all the votes are counted.

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