CA-34 Special Still Looks Like a Surprise

Take a good look at this data. It's the VBM returns for the CA-34 special election through Friday. Election day is tomorrow. Despite being only 16% of registered voters Asians are 35% of the returned ballots. Latinos are 49% of registered voters but are only 28% of returned ballots. Voters 18-24 have been only 5% of the returned ballots despite being 10% of voters. Voters age 65+, on the other hand, are 44% of all returned ballots and they are only 19% of voters.

There are still going to be a lot more votes with late VBMs and election day ballots and this could be less than 25% of all ballots cast. But special elections tend to be much heavier VBM than regularly scheduled elections. And we really don't have any reason to believe election day voters are going to be much different. There may be reason for Jimmy Gomez to be nervous about making the run-off.