Friday, March 17, 2017

Could Jimmy Gomez Miss the CA-34 Run-Off?

When Xavier Becerra resigned his congressional seat it appeared that stars aligned for assemblyman Jimmy Gomez to take it. L.A. City Councilman Gil Cedillo decided not to run and endorsed Gomez. Gomez got endorsements from politicians,, labor unions, and Planned Parenthood. Take it home. We're done.

Not so fast. Special elections are low turn out races, typically attracting 10%-20% of registered voters. The smaller the electorate the easier it is for candidates to rally a small amount of voters to the polls. We have VBM returns for the race. Only about 2% of registered voters have voted. Since even in a poor turnout special election 10% will turn out, this is only somewhere between 10 and 20% of the voters.

The District is 58% Democratic and 9% Republican but the VBMs are 58% Democratic and 14% Republican so far. Since this is the only election on the ballot, they are turning out to vote in this election. There is only one Republican on the ballot, while there are 19 Democrats. If William Morrison gets 15% of the vote he should be one of the candidates to go to the two person run-off.

Registered voters are 49% Latino/16% Asian but VBMs are 36% Asian/26% Latino. I don’t know the ethnicity of everyone on the ballot but it looks like 15 Latinos, 5 Whites, 1 African-American, and 2 Asians. The two Asians are Robert Lee Ahn and Steven Mac make the run off. Mac is a county prosecutor. If the Asian voters are voting for the Asian candidates one should easily get at least 15%.

Does Jimmy Gomez get the rest? Not so fast. Bernie Sanders won the district and three candidates are claiming to be cut from the Sanders cloth, including Arturo Carmona, Sanders’ deputy political director during the presidential campaign. Actor Danny Glover is endorsing him. The LA Times predicts Gomez will make the run off. I’m not ready to predict he won’t but I see the possibility that he won’t. If that happens it'll be a huge upset.

1 comment:

  1. There are 3 asians: Robert Lee Ahn, Steven Mac and Kenneth Mejia. Kenneth is Filipino