Thursday, May 26, 2016

California Democratic Primary: Sanders will get shellacked

There's a new poll out saying Bernie Sanders is only down 2 points. He's got a shot!

I don't think so. There are now over 1.1 million ballots that have been returned and all the indicators are bad for Sanders. I can even add a little to yesterday's post.

Only 9% are from people 18-35. Sanders does well with young people and they aren't returning their ballots.

Only 18% are from people who aren't Republicans or Democrats. Independents are Sanders' core supporters. As I mentioned yesterday, few NPPs have requested Democratic ballots. So many of Sanders' independents who are telling people they intend to vote for him won't be able to vote for him.

Democratic ballot returns are way up over 2014. The more Democratic votes there are, the better it is for Hillary Clinton.

The Latino vote is 13% of the electorate. That is low, but up from 2014.

Sanders should do better on election day, than VBM but the election day vote is making up a smaller portion of the electorate. The 2014 primary was 69.4% VBM. VBM keeps growing in every election. I don't see Sanders getting enough voters on election day to get close to Clinton.

No comments:

Post a Comment