Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Trump's Impact Down Ballot

I'm sure you've read people saying that Republicans nominating Trump would be a disaster down ticket. As evidence those people cite that voters won't split their tickets, which is erroneous, or that reliable Republican voters will stay home. They cite polls saying that GOP voters won't vote for Trump in November. One problem with those polls is they don't ask what people plan to do instead. Well, ABC finally asked the question of Wisconsin primary voters:

These results aren’t the disaster people were predicting. Only 9% of people say they wouldn't vote. This number will likely be lower for two reasons. First, people often feel this way about any rival if their preferred candidate isn’t the nominee but then they vote anyway. Clinton voters vowed not to vote for Barack Obama but they did anyway. Second, Republican senate and congressional candidates will mount get out the vote efforts with these voters encouraging them to go to the polls anyway. They'll encourage the voters to leave the Presidential line blank or vote third party.

We should also remember that the general election will include a lot of people who didn’t vote today. So there are replacements and the GOP will have to get them to the polls. I don't want to give the impression that's impossible that Donald Trump won't negatively impact Republican candidates. He likely will and he could cost the Republicans a few close contests. He just won't cause a landslide loss down ballot.

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