Friday, February 20, 2015

California Senate Race Demographic Turnout

California election analysts are lucky. The information of who votes is readily available and the people at Political Data crunch all the numbers. Pollsters and election pundits from outside California say, "you can't predict who's going to vote." Well, you can in California. Political Data does that themselves, as do others with their data.

This data contradicts a story out there in the media. Because Blacks vote at higher rates than Hispanics, Attorney General Kamala Harris has an advantage. It's true that Blacks do vote at higher rates. After you set aside all the Latinos who aren't citizens and aren't registered to vote, Latino turnout was 28% in 2014, compared to 32% for African-Americans.

What people fail to mention is that there are over 4 million Latinos registered to vote in California, compared to just over 1 million African-Americans. Even with lower turnout, Latinos were 15.3% of the California electorate and African-Americans were 4.6%. Latinos still outnumbered African-Americans by over 3 to 1. If a Latino candidate could consolidate the Hispanic vote than he or she would garner a lot more Hispanic votes than Harris would African-Americans. Harris, however, also has a strong appeal to White Democrats and polls show that a Hispanic candidate won't dominate Hispanics.

No comments:

Post a Comment