California SD-7 special election

There'll be a special election in Contra Costa county centered SD-7 to replace Mark DeSaulnier, who won the CA-11 congressional seat. It's a D+10 district and one that a Democrat is almost certain to win in 2016. But specials are a different story here. Just last year Susan Shelley came within a point of winning a D+13 San Fernando Valley assembly district in a special election. This district covers some of the same area as AD-16, which is D+7. Republican Catherine Baker just won that. And specials are more low turnout than mid-terms. If Republican Mark Meuser wins that election other people will be surprised, but you won't.