Sunday, March 16, 2014

California Congressional Primary Filing Analysis

This provides the field for notable congressional districts. For the most part I’m not going to try to handicap the primary, let alone the general, but more give a general idea how the field will be impacted by top two.

I don’t have a confirmed candidate list, but congressman Doug LaMalfa may be challenged by two Republicans and two Democrats. This shouldn’t be a big deal for LaMalfa. One of the Republicans ran against him last time and he beat him 38%-3%. Expect LaMalfa to face a Democrat in November.

Incumbent John Garamendi and assemblyman Dan Logue are the only Democrat and Republican. There may be an NPP but he won’t finish top two.

The most vulnerable Republican incumbent in November might not be Jeff Denham or David Valadao. It could be Tom McClintock. McClintock got only one opponent, former U.S. Army officer Art Moore. And Moore filed as a Republican. His challenge to McClintock has a lot of conservatives upset and it’s easy to see why. McClintock is regarded as one of the most conservative, if not the most conservative, Republican congressman in California.

Democrats would love to take him out. And the Democrat who ran against McClintock in 2012 got 39% of the vote. One needs to go back to Eric Swalwell’s challenge of liberal Democrat Pete Stark in 2012. Swalwell positioned himself as a liberal, but one that Republicans wouldn’t mind the way they hated Stark. He beat Stark by 4 points. That district was 23% Republican. This one is 29% Democratic. If Moore runs a smart campaign and spends some money, he can do a Swalwell.

One of three Republicans (Birman, Emken, Ose) will face Ami Bera in November.

Paul Cook is being challenged by two Republicans and two Democrats. Last time there were ten Republicans and two Democrats and two Republicans made top two. Cook will get one slot with a lot more than the 15.3% he got in 2012. It’s too early to say whether a Republican or Democrat will get the other.

While McClintock may have a formidable challenge, it's too early to say if Cook will. First, he may go up against a Democrat. Second, he did face another Republican in top two in 2012 and won. Unlike McClintock, who Democrats may want to beat, Cook was regarded as the more moderate Republican.

Three Republicans filed against Jerry McNerney. None have raised any money, but one will make it to November.

Jeff Denham will face one of the two Democrats to file against him.

Democratic State Senator Mark DeSaulnier has been all but anointed by the Democrats though out the state. Yet my research shows three other Democrats, a couple of Republicans, and an NPP running against him. None should challenge him making top two. His opponent will likely be a Republican, but with two running it's possible they'll split the vote and a Democrat will slip in.

Eric Swalwell has a Republican in his race against State Senator Ellen Corbett. That’s good news for him, as the Republican will get 30-35% of the vote and make top two. Corbett should be easy for him to beat among Democrats, especially considering his incumbency and his cash on hand advantage.

Jim Costa is being challenged by three some dude Republicans and a candidate who may have filed as a Democrat or NPP. One of the some dudes will face Costa.

If Ro Khanna arranged the late arrivals to this race it couldn’t have gone better for him. While Republican Vanila Singh should get most of the GOP vote, another Republican and an Indian-American NPP could siphon off enough votes to get Khanna into top two against Mike Honda.

Either carpetbagging Amanda Renteria or debt ridden John Hernandez will be the Democrat to face Republican congressman David Valadao.

Kevin McCarthy may be unopposed. I don’t know since Kern County doesn’t publish candidate filing. If he is, this would be his fourth consecutive election without a Democratic opponent. That’s pathetic.

There are five Republicans, two Democrats and an NPP challenging Lois Capps. With all this filing, you’d think she retired. Capps will make top two and it’s likely a Republican will as well. In 2012, there were a number of districts where a some dude Democrat challenged an incumbent Democrat and a Republican also ran. In almost all of them that Democrat got 4-7%. Most of those districts were more Democratic than this, so there were more Democratic votes for them to get. Even Barbara Lee’s Democratic opponent lost 83%-5%. And there are two Democrats here. I’d be surprised if one got 10% of the vote and if no Republican got more than that. Still, it has the potential for a two Democrat top two.

On the other hand, CA-25 is well set up for the GOP. Buck McKeon has two Republican challengers and a Democrat running against him in the primary and he took 50% of the vote, the Democrat took 30%, and the other two Republicans took 20%. This time there are former state Tony Strickland, current state senator Steve Knight, two some dude Republicans, a Libertarian, and two Democrats. I’d expect Strickland and Knight to split at least 50% of the vote, but probably closer to 60%. Lee Rogers is the better Democrat but Evan Thomas will suck some of the Democratic vote from him. It could be Strickland and Knight top two, but one of them might face Rogers in November.

Two Republicans, Assemblyman Jeff Gorell and Tea Party candidate Rafael Dagnesses, along with an NPP will challenge Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley. It’d be bad for the GOP if Gorell didn’t advance.

A Republican will go up against incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman in November.

Five Democrats filed. No Republicans did. Should make for an interesting November.

Ray Haynes, a former Republican assemblyman, and Brian Nestande, a current Republican one, filed against incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz. Haynes will try to outflank Nestande on his right. I’m not sure he can win the district if he finishes ahead of Nestande.

While Riverside City Councilman Steve Adams is a step down from Riverside county supervisor John Tavaglione for the GOP, you can’t expect much after Tavaglione’s 18 point defeat. There’s another Republican and a Democrat challenging incumbent Mark Takano in the race.

Ken Calvert didn’t draw a Republican challenger, as his possible challenger County Supervisor Jeff Stone is running for state senate. He did draw three Democrats.

Mimi Walters will likely hold the record for fastest entry into a race after a congressman retires and she should beat Republican challenger Greg Raths in top two. Raths has four times more debt than cash on hand. There’s a Democrat who’ll also make top two and another candidate whose party I can’t identify.

Incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez drew two Republicans, a Democrat, and an NPP. All some dudes. This district isn't winnable for a Republican any more.

Incumbent Democrat Alan Lowenthal drew only one opponent, some dude Republican Andy Whallon. This district looked attractive but at D+10 it's out of reach for the GOP.

Incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher drew a Republican, two Democrats, and a candidate whose party I can’t identify. None will seriously challenge him, but he will face a Democrat in November.

Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa drew two some dude Democrats.

Incumbent Republican Duncan Hunter drew one and a Libertarian.

Former San Diego mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio’s challenge of incumbent Democrat Scott Peters has gotten a lot of press and DeMaio has raised over $1 million. He’s going to be attacked from his right by Tea Party challenger Kirk Jorgensen and surgeon Fred Simon. Neither Jorgensen nor Simon should be dismissed as some dude. Jorgensen had raised over $200k as of December 31 and Simon put $400k of his own money into the campaign. DeMaio can’t assume he’ll make top two. He will have to work for it.

CA-53 Susan Davis drew four some dude Republicans and two NPPs. That’s a big field for an incumbent who isn’t vulnerable. Maybe they thought that she was retiring.

No comments:

Post a Comment