Thursday, January 2, 2014

2013 Election Recap

This provides a 2013 election recap. I'm including elections where the winner had less than 70% of the vote, as elections where the winner has more are often not contested.

California State 45th Assembly District - Democrat 51%-49%
California State 52nd Assembly District - Democrat 51%-49%
California 16th Senate District - Republican 52%-48%
California 32nd Senate District - Democrat 60%-40%
California 40th Senate District - Democrat 64%-36%

President Obama got at least 63% in all these districts in 2012. The first three on the list were very bad for Democrats. The other two were underperformances but about what might be expected of Democrats, especially in an off year.

Colorado SD 3 Recall Democrat 56%-44%
Colorado SD 11 Recall Democrat 51%-49%

These results were awful for Democrats. I think these seats were 58-59% Obama. Democrats outspent Republicans dramatically in these recalls and they still lost.

Iowa SS-13 - Republican 58%-42%

Kentucky 56th State Representative - Democrat 44%-34%
Kentucky 52nd State Representative - Republican 59%-41%
Kentucky 13th Senatorial District - Democrat 54%-35%
Kentucky 7th State Representative - Republican 51%-49%

Michigan SR-49 - Democrat 63%-32%

Minnesota State Legislative District 14A - Republican 55%-43%
Minnesota State Legislative District 19A - Democrat 54%-36%

Missouri 8th congressional district - Republican 67%-27%
Missouri LD157 - Republican 59%-41%

I don't know about the LD but the congressional result was a few points worse than the 2012 result. That's probably not meaningful. The Democrat did only get 27%.

Massachusetts 6th Bristol - Democrat 53%-47%
Massachusetts 16th Worcester - Democrat 64%-36%
Massachusetts's 5th congressional district - Democrat 66%-32%

I don't know about the Massachusetts State Legislature elections, but Ed Markey's margin was 51 points, 19 points better than Katherine Clark did. Like the MO-8 election, it could simply be due to the seat being open and the other party trying.

Maine State Senate District 19 - Democrat 51%-46%

New Jersey Assembly - Democrat 50%-50%
New Jersey State Senate - Republican 51%-49%
New Jersey Governor - Republican 60%-38%
New Jersey Senate - Democrat 55%-45%

While the Christie result might be considered expected, the other results are, IMO, the most shocking of 2013. The races above might be attributed to the circumstances in a single district and individual candidates. These are statewide results.

The Senate race was a major shocker to me. I don't know the final numbers but as of July 24, 2013 Booker had spent $2,582,837 to Lonegan's $171,538. Booker was well known and well-liked. Lonegan ran as a Tea Party Republican in a blue state and the election was at the height of the government shutdown. Yet somehow Lonegan got the highest percentage a Republican has gotten in a New Jersey senate race since 2000.

Three weeks later the two parties split the legislative vote. Maybe this was simply Christie's coat tails. Still, this is a D+7 state and Republicans did a lot better than anyone thought they could do.

South Carolina State House of Representatives District 93 - Democrat 66%-34%
South Carolina 1st Congressional District - Republican 54%-42%

This was the best congressional result for a Democrat in 2013. It's an R+11 district and one that Tim Scott won by 26 points. It may have simply been Mark Sanford and all his baggage.

Virginia Governor - Democrat 48%-45%
Virginia Lieutenant Governor - Democrat 55%-45%
Virginia Attorney General - Democrat 50%-50%
Virginia House of Delegates
Virginia State Senate

I don't have the results for the Senate or House of Delegates. I hope someone can share those with me. On the one hand, this is a purple state, one that had been won by the party that didn't have the White House for a long time. And Democrats swept it.

On the other hand, the Republicans had a weak candidate who was heavily outspent and ended up finishing better than expected. In fact, all these results were a few points better than expected. National politics may have come into play, but that could go both ways. Republicans had recently been blamed for shutting down the government and the negative Obamacare stories were starting to pile up.

Washington Legislative District 26 - State Senator - Republican 52%-48%

Wisconsin Assembly District 82 - Republican 64%-36%
Wisconsin Assembly District 21 - Republican 56%-44%

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