I Won

I’ve spent the last several years working on a documentary that centers around the 2010 election. There were certainly a number of factors that influenced the results of that election, but there was one moment that set everything in motion.

In early 2009, President Obama was riding high and the Republican party was reeling. Barack Obama had Eric Cantor and congressional Republicans over to the White House to discuss the stimulus. Obama wanted to cut taxes for people who paid no Federal income tax. In order to do this, he proposed cutting the social security taxes. When Cantor objected to the idea, the President responded with, “I won.”

He communicated to Cantor that America had chosen his philosophy and policies over theirs and that they could either get on board with his agenda or be irrelevant. Republicans chose the latter and Democrats went ahead with the stimulus without Republican votes.

Democrats soon arrived at a strategy of crafting legislation that appeared bi-partisan but contained items that would make it poisonous to Republicans. As the Democrats hoped, this strategy united the GOP. No Republicans voted for the stimulus and they were united in opposing much of the rest of the President’s agenda. A party with no discernible strategy became the party of the opposition.

They fashioned the Republican party as the “party of no,” certain this’d lead to Republican losses in the 2010 mid-term elections. Chuck Schumer told Rachel Maddow that the “party of no” strategy wasn’t working and that America liked the Democratic agenda and didn’t like the Republican agenda. He predicted that until the Republican base pushed the GOP to toward the Democrats, the Republicans would continue to be irrelevant. Chris Van Hollen, then the DCCC chairman, went so far as to predict that 2010 would once again be a strong Democratic year.

The smarter move would’ve been to break up legislation into parts. They could’ve gotten Republicans to vote for certain healthcare ideas, for example. They could’ve saved the parts Republicans wouldn’t vote for in a separate bill. This would’ve co-opted Republicans and blunted them as an alternative to the Democrats.

Not only did the Democrats marginalize Republicans and their ideas, but they managed to marginalize conservatives and libertarians who held those ideas. Nothing motivates people like a President treating their voice as irrelevant. The right was united and motivated, not behind Republicans, but opposing Obama and the Democrats.

The swing voters like when the parties work together and they were unhappy that an arrogant President was proceeding with a partisan agenda. People blame the President for what goes wrong in Washington and credit him for what goes right. They don't blame the House.

In 2009 and 2010 Democrats were seen as arrogant and partisan and lost the swing voters too, especially with the healthcare bill and all the things like the Cornhusker Kickback. By the time the 2010 election rolled around, Democrats were prime to be slaughtered.

Based on the President’s actions and his inaugural and SOTU President Obama once again thinks “I won” and is again counting on the American public to support a fairly liberal agenda. Right now conservatives and other parts of the right wing coalition are somewhat passive. Nothing will unite and motivate them like the feeling Obama doesn’t care what they think and is going too far to the left. The impact on swing voters could be similar.

I don’t think a Republican wave is inevitable, but if the Democrats repeat the mistakes of 2009-2010 thinking that America is once again with them, you’ll see the GOP take a big share of the vote in 2014. Thus, I’m confounded as to why the President is doing things the way he’s doing them.