The NYT/Siena poll has Levin winning 10% of registered Republicans with Harkey winning only 3% of registered Democrats. This is certainly possible but I think it's unlikely. Republican approval of Donald Trump and congressional Republicans is very high. So many California Republicans have left the party to become NPP that those left are dedicated Republicans.
The NYT/Siena poll has Levin winning NPP voters 69%-21%. I've never seen a margin anywhere near 48% in any election. I'm sure it's possible to find a few but I can't think of any. Donald Trump lost California by 30 points and still only lost independents by 13%. Chuck Schmuer won re-election by 44% and he won independents by 39%. In a new PPIC poll California Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox is beating Democrat Gavin Newsom with independents 43%-38%. Independents statewide are more likely to lean left than independents in a Republican district.
They use a 34% Democrat/39% Republican electorate. That electorate is possible in this district but VBMs are 32% Democrat/45% Republican. It's possible that electorate could move a little more Democratic when all VBM ballots are in and even more Democratic when all the ballots come in but that's a heavy lift. The final electorate is going to be between R+9 and R+18 and they're using R+5.
I'm not saying their results are wrong. I believe that based on everything I see in polls that they could be right. What I am saying is that the data of who is actually voting doesn't support this poll.
There were 228,884 added and that’s 18% of all ballots recorded so far. Overall, 10% of all VBM voters have voted and VBMs are 66% of all voters. So the numbers are starting to get a bit more significant.
CA-7: It was a decent D+4 day for Democrats. It’s still a D+2 electorate, but this is a nail biter of a district so every little bit helps.
CA-10: There was a significant ballot addition here. They only had 7,327 ballots in before yesterday and they added 11,098. Yeah. A lot. And there were 4,607 Republican ballots compared to 4,551 Democratic ballots. So with 7.7% of all ballots in there are 76 more Republican ballots than Democratic ones. I was asked whether Jeff Denham can win with this electorate. The question should be whether he could lose. This electorate is more Republican than the 2016 primary, 2016 general, and 2018 primary. He won all of those. Yes, he could lose if enough Republicans vote for Democrats and independents vote heavier for his opponent.
CA-16: This district is D+7 on VBMs. In 2014, when Jim Costa barely hung on the VBMs were D+11. I'm not saying that Jim Costa is in trouble. I'm saying that the electorate is more Republican than it was in 2014 when he almost lost. It's not hard to draw a conclusion that he is in trouble, but the question again is what the voting patterns are for Republicans and independents.
CA-21: This district is also D+7. That’s less Democratic than the 2014 or 2016 electorates when David Valadao won by double digits.
CA-24: There are 48,8413 VBMs in here,18% of the total. Both of those are the highest among competitive districts. There are 11 more Democratic ballots than Republican ballots. It’s seriously that close. And the election could be that close.
CA-25: It was a very good day for Democrats. VBMs were only R+2, lowering the overall VBM number from R+9 to R+8. The primary was also R+8. Steve Knight was barely ahead there and he probably won’t win if the VBM returns are in the R+4-5 range. Based on VBMs Steve Knight is in the most trouble of any Republican.
CA-39: There were 2,512 Republican ballots added and1,655 Democratic ones. The VBMs remain at R+18, still excellent for Young Kim.
CA-45: The VBMs were R+16, moving the overall number from R+18 to R+17. Mimi Walters wins with an electorate like that.
CA-48: The VBMs were R+13, moving the overall number from R+18 to R+17, still fine for Dana Rohrabacher.
CA-49: There were only Orange County VBMs added. Those were R+19. So the electorate moves to R+13. That should go down when the next San Diego county VBMs are added but we’re at 10.5% of all VBMs right now, plenty of which are from San Diego. The primary electorate was R+1. The expert opinion is that Diane Harkey has no shot. I can’t see how that’s the case with an R+13 VBM return.
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