PPIC California Poll

PPIC is out with a new California poll and it's a bad one for Antonio Villarigosa. He's now third behind John Cox. The underlying numbers aren't encouraging for him. 30% of Republicans, 26% of independents, and 17% of Democrats are undecided. Villarigosa is running 4th among independents, so he's likely to lose ground when those 77% of the undecideds decide. If Chiang or Easton get some traction he'll probably fall to 4th. One big problem he has is that Newsom even beats him with moderates. And he's running a far left campaign.

The Senate poll is junk. They include only two candidates when there are two dozen running. That's why 39% are undecided here, but only 24% are in the gubernatorial poll. Less Democrats are undecided in this poll but Republicans and independents sky rocket. De Leon gets killed by Feinstein among Democrats and independents but is close to her among Republicans who choose between the two. That isn't surprising even though de Leon is running on a progressive anti-Republican/Donald Trump message. I’m guessing that de Leon is angry that any Republicans would vote for him. These are people he despises.

Republicans don't know who he is, so some choose him over Feinstein. They know they don't want her. If Republicans actually hear about de Leon he wouldn’t do so well head to head. There are 4 Republicans in the race. I'm thinking Republicans will get 31-36% of the vote and Democrats 57-62%, with the remaining going to other parties. If de Leon is only able to get 15 % of the vote he needs a fairly even split over 3 or 4 candidates and hope one doesn't break out. Elizabeth Emken did in 2012, to some extent, but no one did in 2016. De Leon finishing top two is possible, although I think his chances are less than 50%. He has no path to victory in a one-on-one match-up. People registering Democratic aren't abandoning Feinstein and there aren't enough independents on her left for de Leon to beat her with them.

I keep hearing that no Republican will finish top two because there aren't any well known Republicans in the race. I guess this goes with theory that people will vote for whoever they know and/or see ads for. Um... No. Republicans will vote for a Republican they've never heard of instead of leaving the ballot blank or voting for a Democrat they dislike. A Republican Senate candidate could make top two without anyone knowing who he is.