Trump v. Clinton, State and National polls 9/23

I've updated the spreadsheet. You'll find that here. I'm using the most recent polls when figuring out the states because the polls have moved a lot recently. Using a poll that's several weeks old doesn't keep up with how the race has changed. I'm finding the traditional pollsters to be more consistent. The Internet only pollsters, IPSOS and Google Consumer Surveys, have produced funky results. Google has Hillary Clinton winning Republican strongholds like South Dakota, Montana, and Kansas, while it has Trump running even with Clinton in Democratic New Jersey and him winning big in New Hampshire. I only included those surveys when there were no other polls. Due to a lack of surveys I have Trump leading in New Mexico, even though he was never close to her the last few times traditional pollsters polled the state.

I find the state polls consistent with a Clinton lead of 1.9%. That's down from 2.9% two weeks ago. Trump is much closer in the electoral college. He's behind 296-242, compared with 323-215 on September 2. Trump is relatively close in Florida, Colorado, and Maine, suggesting he could win the electoral college even while losing the popular vote. It may all come down to Florida. I don't think Trump can win without winning that state. Clinton can, but winning there would cement her victory.