The Public Policy Institute of California has a new statewide poll out and it shows similar results to the Field poll. Kamala Harris leads Loretta Sanchez 38%-20%. Harris is winning big with Democrats and has a good lead with independents. A full 50% of Republicans and 34% of independents indicate they won't vote in the election. The survey overall has a 28% undervote. As I said with the Field poll I expect about a 15% undervote. It doesn't surprise me that right leaning voters are saying they won't vote now. A lot of voters unhappy with choices might say they won't vote in July but get a feeling of responsibility when the ballot is in front of them.
Sanchez is doing better with Republicans who say they'll vote in this survey but she needs to take a lot more to win. The survey is 46% Democratic and only 22% Republican. Even with the Republican presence in California diminishing that's above Democratic registration and below Republican registration. Such a turnout would be unprecedented in a California general election. Sanchez's challenge is to get those Republicans and right leaning independents to vote and vote for her. I don't know what her strategy is to do that.
I don't see the race really hurting Republicans down ballot. In 2012 popular Democrat Dianne Feinstein ran against Republican (do you remember her name?). I'd guess that many Republicans didn't even know there was a senate race until they opened the ballot and more had never heard of Elizabeth Emken (was she your guess?). Yet they still voted.
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