California VBM Exit Polls

So far there have been 3.1 million VBM (Vote By Mail) ballots returned for the California primary. While this is almost all of the VBM ballots that'll arrive in the mail before election day, there'll be more VBM ballots turned by hand on election day. This year any ballot postmarked June 7 or earlier that arrives at a county election office by Friday, June 10 will be counted. So more VBM ballots will be added. The record in the primary is 3.8 million VBM ballots. This'll be surpassed this year.

Capital Weekly has upped their exit poll to 16,281 online responses. As I mentioned earlier this is a size that should be representative of those returning ballots. Usually the VBM ballots turned in before election day are older and more Republican than election day votes. This year, however, the VBM votes have been more Democratic than usual. This means that either the vote this year will be really Democratic or that there won't be as much of a discrepancy between VBM and election day.

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