Prognosticators realize Democrats won't win the House

Below are how each prognosticator has the seats distributed. I use a formula of 1.0 seats for a safe seat 0.8 for a likely seat, 0.6 for a lean seat, 0.5 for a toss-up, 0.4 for a lean seat for the other party, and 0.2 for a likely to the other party. The numbers in parentheses are from last month.

Everyone has around 210 Likely/Safe Republican.The predictions are actually catching up with their district by district forecasts.

The Hill projects Democrats will pick up 10 to 15 seats, leaving them short of the 25 seats needed to win the House.

A seat-by-seat breakdown of the ratings would yield Democrats fewer seats than the 10-15 projected, but they have less vulnerable seats to defend than the GOP and they lead by a few percentage points on the generic Congressional ballot, giving them more upside for greater pickups.

From the Rothenberg Political Report:

Our current estimate stands between a +1 gain for Republicans and a +6 gain for Democrats.

From the Cook Political Report:

An analysis of the race-by-race landscape tracks the partisan data pretty closely. The Cook Political Report rates 211 House seats as solid or likely Republican, compared with 171 as solid or likely Democratic. If the 24 toss-up races split evenly between the parties, Democrats would score a net gain of just a single seat. Even if Democrats held everything in their solid, likely, and lean columns and also won every toss-up, they would still need to take two-thirds (12 of 18) of the districts rated lean Republican to win a majority. That's a pretty unlikely scenario, absent a strong wind at their backs.