The long-rumored Jerry Lewis retirement became official today and that resulted in domino after domino dropping. We'll start with the easier district.
CA-8: This is the rural/desert/mountain district that's very Republican. Up until today four Republicans had entered the race, the most notable being Victorville mayor Ryan McEachron. If you've never heard of Victorville, then you realize we're not talking a major metropolis here.
It didn't take long for the race to attract bigger names. San Bernardino County Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt and Assemblyman Paul Cook of Yucaipa jumped in immediately. That gives you six Republicans and one Democrat running for the seat. If another Democrat joins, the top two primary could be a disaster for the GOP. It's possible the Republican vote could be so spread out none of them make November. I know that sounds far-fetched in such a Republican district but there aren't that many votes to go around.
CA-31: Lewis' announcement brought several other announcements. Congressman Gary Miller abandoned his challenge to fellow Republican Ed Royce in CA-39 and announced he'd run here. House Speaker John Boehner and NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions immediately endorsed the move. Miller currently represents none of this district, as his current district is just to the west.
Miller has had some ethics issues and he's not a great fit for the district. He does, however, have a lot of money in the bank.
Miller's immediate switch and the endorsement of Pete Sessions means that Congressman David Dreier won't run here. Dreier is well connected with Republican leadership and they're not going to endorse someone else if he's interested. If Dreier isn't running here he'll likely retire. Of maybe he'll do a kamikaze run for the senate as Congressman Kevin McCarthy suggests.
Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar immediately announced he'd run as a Democrat. He's a stronger candidate than the current Democrats in the race.
San Bernardino County District Attorney Mike Ramos, a Republican, announced he wouldn't run for the seat.
State Sen. Bob Dutton, who was the Senate minority leader until this month, had indicated he was considering running here and has yet to rule it out.
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