The Obama Voter

Democrats have the idea that if they can just get all the Obama voters to the polls, they'll do fine. After all, in most polls Obama voters say they're voting Democratic over 80% of the time. The perception is that the Obama voter is a wide eyed 20 year old progressive who is set to vote Democratic for life.

That's unlikely.

The Obama voter contained a number of first time voters, some of whom had recently turned 18. The election contained some unusual circumstances. Republicans were disliked more than they'd been in any Presidential election since 1976. A number of voters weren't voting because they were Democrats or even liked the Democrats. They disliked the Republicans. Some voters were sold on Obama's charisma and his message of "hope" and "change." These people weren't dyed in the wool Democrats either. Obama got 53% of the vote, more than any Democratic Presidential nominee got since 1964. It's fair to say that some people were voting for a Democrat for President for the first time. Considering that McCain got 2 million votes less than Bush, some of them were likely Bush voters.

Democratic congressional candidates got 65 million votes, 55.6% of all House votes. The 65 million votes was 12.5 million more than the Democrats had ever gotten. The 55.6% was better than they'd done in a House election since 1982. Many were likely voting for a Democrat for congress for the first time. A mid-term election generally draws about 72-75% of the vote a Presidential election draws. Considering Obama has 36% approval with whites and got 43% of their vote in the election, it's fair to say that some white Obama voters are unhappy with him. They might not be motivated to vote Republican this year, but they sure aren't voting for Democrats. If they were motivated to vote, I think more would Republican than Democrat.