Congressional Make-up by PVI

Based on current PVI, the House had this composition after the 2004 election:


Republican leaning districts outnumber Democratic ones 234-192, even though the average is 50%. This is because of the high concentration of Democrats in Democratic districts. There are 52 PVI 20+ districts vs. 21 Republican.

This looks like a fairly expected seat skew. Strangely, Democrats were better at getting dark red seats, but Republican had an advantage when it came to the swing districts. Now, here’s the current make-up:


Democrats took many of their own seats Republicans held but also greatly increased light red/red districts. This is only sustainable with high Democratic turn-out, low Republican turn-out, and indie advantage. If Republicans take back their own districts and take Democratic districts the way the Democrats did in 2006 and 2008, Republicans would pick up 98 seats:


Unlikely? Sure. But, if things are as bad for Democrats as it was for Republicans in 2006 and 2008, this is what’ll happen.