The Senate

I keep thinking that the nation’s mood can’t stay so far Republican, but Republican momentum even seems to be increasing. On Tuesday Republicans won three of four special elections in the New York State Assembly. This was a gain of two seats in blue New York. Since I don’t see a hint of momentum going the other way I’ll make my first Senate predictions.

Definite Republican Pick-ups: Nevada, Arkansas, North Dakota
When an incumbent is well-established the election is almost entirely about them. Harry Reid can do all the negative advertising he wants about his Republican opponent, but absent something horrendous it won’t save him. And he’s still polling in the low 40’s/high 30’s against all his opponents. Blanche Lincoln has dropped into the low 30’s against her opposition. People in these states know what their senators bring and that’s not going to change. They know who they are and have decided against them.

Many Democrats have also turned their back on these two. Lincoln is too conservative for their tastes, while Reid can’t run the senate well enough to pass significant legislation. Democratic sentiments are that they won’t be missed and in 2016 they’ll run someone more to their liking.

They did the same thing in North Dakota and Connecticut, forcing Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd to retire. The Democrats have no one to offer in North Dakota, while the Republicans have popular Governor John Hoeven. In Connecticut they do have a strong candidate, attorney general Richard Blumenthal, someone without the Washington Democratic taint. His entry saves Connecticut for the Democrats.

Probable Republican Pick-ups: Delaware, Pennsylvania, Colorado
In Delaware the Republicans have popular congressman Mike Castle, while the Democrats lack a strong candidate. In Pennsylvania the likely Democratic nominee is Arlen Specter. Specter is an old white guy who used to be a Republican. He won’t excite the young Democratic voters. Bennet has failed to excite Colorado voters. Without a strong base he won’t win.

Republican Open Seats: New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky
Democrats unseated Republican incumbents in the first three states in 2006 and 2008, while coming within six points of beating Mitch McConnell. Yet polls have Democrats trailing Republicans by at least five points in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Kentucky. These seats will only go Democratic if the national mood on Democrats changes. Missouri is the best hope for a Democratic pick-up, mostly because the Republican, Roy Blunt, is a sitting congressman, while his opponent, Robin Carnahan, is not.

Possible Republican Pick-ups: Illinois, Indiana, California
Two of these are reliably blue states, while Indiana has an incumbent who has repeatedly won statewide races. Illinois looks like a toss-up right now, while Indiana and California still favor the Democrats. The polling in these states appears to be trending Republican, however.

In Any Other Year: North Carolina, Louisiana, Florida
As with the states above Democrats hold the other senate seat in each of these states. They have good candidates in each, while the Republicans have candidates with question marks. With the current Republican trend the Republican candidates in Louisiana and Florida are polling ahead in double digits while Richard Burr in North Carolina has been at least five points ahead in each poll. It’s hard to see momentum swinging far enough for these seats to be in real danger.

Awaiting a candidate: New York, Wisconsin, Washington
Democratic incumbents in these states either got 55% of the vote in 2004 or are running for the first time. The only reason these states aren’t in play is because the Republicans don’t have strong candidates yet. Of course Scott Brown wasn’t regarded as a strong candidate when he was nominated. These elections bear watching.

Safe States
In the 11 other Republican held states the Democrats have yet to field a viable candidate. Nine of these states currently have two Republican senators. Considering how safe Kansas, Utah, Idaho, et al usually are it’s hard to see them becoming competitive.

The remaining Democratic states (Vermont, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon) are unlikely to come into play due to strong still popular incumbents, but at this point it’s hard to see any Democratic seat as completely safe.