Betty White for Howard Berman

Well, if Betty is for Howard, how can we go wrong? This is amusing for Republicans. Knockdown drag out and we are actually being courted.

CA-8: A crowded field

This is a district that takes up most of San Bernardino county north to Mammoth Mountain ski resort. There’s also the San Bernardino National Forest, Joshua Tree National Park, and Death Valley. The district is unusual because it has no big city, just smaller ones like Victorville and Yucaipa.

When Rep. Jerry Lewis retired CA-8 had no incumbent. Since this is a safe Republican district, Republican candidates have come out of the wood work to run here. You’ve got a state assemblyman, a county supervisor, mayors, a city councilwoman, and even a deep pocketed business man from outside the district. There’s only one Democrat, Jackie Conaway. Even though she’s raised only $10,819, she doesn’t have anything to worry about. The district is 32% registered Democrats. They’ll be voting for her. She’ll get 30-35% of the vote.

No one else will get half of that. The favorite is San Bernardino Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt. He’s raised some money, is well known in the district, and has a Super Pac behind him, with the wonderful name Jobs, Opportunity, & Freedom. Who is against that?

Mitzelfelt’s two chief rivals figure to be State Assemblyman Paul Cook and Victorville Mayor Ryan McEachron. All three have raised a similar amount of money and have good name recognition. Each candidate can concentrate on his base, as none might not even get 15%.

Rich dude Phil Libatore showed up in the district at the last moment. No one should dismiss a deep pocketed candidate’s ability to get at least some votes, but Libatore hasn’t put in the amount he did in a 2010 run and he’s from pretty far outside the district. I don’t see him getting traction.

Former GOP Assemblyman Anthony Adams has sparked a lot of interest because he’s running under the No Party Preference banner. Yay! Yay! Was that insincere? The going thought is that because he’s NPP, he’ll get a lot of independent votes and add them to his Republican votes. After he voted for the 2009 tax increase, Republicans attempted to recall him. With 10 Republicans in the field, it’s tough to see Adams getting a lot of GOP votes.

Okay, but what about independent votes? The district is 26% independent/minor parties. There’s a misperception that independents are moderates who are just looking for a great independent moderate. They aren’t. Certainly some are and maybe a majority are. You’re a Republican or Democrat because you identify with the party or their candidates. That’s why, in this age of polarization, the parties get such a high percentage of votes from their members. They are inclined to vote for a member of their party, who they want to support, even if they like an independent better. Surely, not all of them, but most.

Independents, however, have no loyalty to a party and being independent isn’t one. They might be very conservative, libertarian, very liberal, or even socialist. Maybe they don’t like getting the party mail and phone calls. Maybe they don’t like identifying themselves with a party. Maybe they don’t want to feel obligated to vote for that party. There are many reasons why they’re independents.

That’s why I think Adams, who has no clear constituency, gets 5% of the vote. His only hope is to go hard after Democrats and hope he can appeal to them as a candidate who can win in November. I’m skeptical.

There are several other Republicans in the race, but I don’t think any of them are threats to pull more than 10%. I know Angela Valles put out a poll showing her above that, but she’s raised $175 from donations and the only cash on hand she has is her own.

CA-31: Red to Blue

Democrats have added several districts to their Red to Blue program, Republican districts they want to take in November. Actually it includes open seats currently occupied by Democrats, as these candidates are also challengers. I suppose Blue to Blue wouldn't be nearly as sexy. The Democrats have added Raul Ruiz (CA-36) and Pete Aguilar (CA-31) to their list that already included Jose Hernandez in CA-10, Mark Takano in CA-41, and Blong Xiong in CA-21. I have no idea why Ami Bera (CA-7), Julia Brownley (CA-26), and Alan Lowenthal (CA-47) are not yet on the list. They've indicated they are targeting these districts and there's only one serious Democratic candidate in each one.

Aguilar has long been known to be the establishment pick for CA-31. The party had chosen not to add him to the Red to Blue list before now, even though most of the others were already there. I assumed they didn't want to take sides in the primary. I don't know how much this means, as I doubt the DCCC will be marshaling their resources to push one Democrat over another. Still, any recognition of this kind has to be a disappointment to Justin Kim. The battle in CA-31 is going to be difficult and this could help Aguilar.

The Republican establishment has been in Rep. Gary Miller's corner since he declared. State sen. Bob Dutton hardly seems to be positioned to be the outsider in the race. He was minority leader, which put him as one of the people who decide who is inside. He even received a legislative award today. He too has an uphill challenge.

Another CA-2 Poll

We have another CA-2 poll, this time from Democrat Norman Solomon. The last one had 45% of the vote gong to Democrats, but only 10% going to Republicans. This one tops it. Before I get to that, I want to recap previous elections. CA-2 is mostly Thompson and Woolsey's districts combined. Here's how the old districts voted in 2010.

Pretty Democratic, but there were some Republican votes there. There were also a bunch of third party votes in each election, so we know people will vote for who they want regardless if the candidate has a chance to win. Some Whitman/Fiorina voters crossed over for Thompson, but that wasn't the case with Woolsey.

Here is the new district:

It became more Republican, so we'd expect a share of the votes to go to the Republican candidates. Here are the poll results, compared to the 2010 vote.

So either Republicans are disproportionally undecided, they're all voting Democratic, or they under polled Republicans because Solomon wanted to show supporters and donors he was doing well, but still needed support. I'm not saying for sure a Republican will finish 1 or 2, but with so many quality Democrats I think it'll happen.

CA-2: Who is Stacey Lawson

I called Stacey Lawson unknown last week. Apparently someone is noticing. There's now a website up to slam Stacey Lawson. I have no idea who is behind it, but this is what happens when a relative unknown shows strength in a race.

CA-3: An Opening for the GOP

There were a few districts that were gifts to Republicans and this is one of them. It went from a district that Obama got 65% of the vote to 55%. The commission paired 4 conservative Northern California counties with Yolo and Solano counties. These areas don’t have a lot in common and shouldn’t be together.

But it is. And John Garamendi may have a race. It’s a D+3 Presidential, D+3 Gubernatorial, and D+2 Congressional district. At least it was. In the last year Democratic registration has dropped almost by a full point, but Republican registration has remained constant. There’s still a Democratic registration edge, but Democratic registration is padded with low turn-out voters.

Garamendi’s performance was less than stellar in his initial 2009 election and similarly lackluster in 2010. Both years leaned Republican and 2012 doesn’t figure to.

He has four Republican challengers, three of whom are just some guy. While both Rick Tubbs and Eugene Ray are out there stumping for votes, nothing says that you have votes more than people donating to you. Neither has gotten much in donations. Rick Tubbs has a few endorsements, while Ray and Sutter Deputy DA Tony Carlos don’t show anything.

The real challenger, the only one with a chance to win is Colusa County supervisor Kim Dolbow Vann. She’s got fundraising dollars and a lot of endorsements. She’s a supervisor in Colusa County. While I like county supervisors, Colusa is a small county. A positive for Dolbow Vann is that she has endorsements in the other counties in the district.

I don’t know if she’s a good campaigner, but she should finish a strong second on June 5. Watch Republican and Democratic share of the vote to see if she has a shot.

California Top Two Still Still Misunderstood

Perhaps I'm just being redundant, but all these "experts" are in for a surprise on June 5. Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the respected California Target Book, thinks the following races may end up being party v. party in November.

CD2: A Democrat vs. Democrat contest is very likely.

A Democrat vs. Democrat contest is very unlikely. I see this district going around 69% Democratic/30% Republican in June. Great. Two Democrats could easily exceed any Republican. Two Democrats could, but there are more than 2 in this race. There are 8, 4 of whom are serious candidates. That's a lot of voters to divide up. I don't anticipate any Democrat exceeding 25%.

There are two Republican candidates, one of whom has raised nearly $200,000 and the other who hasn't submitted a fundraising report. Dan Roberts has the state party endorsement. This is golden, because if people don't know the candidates the state party endorsement mailer is extremely important. I know I've voted for people on it when I didn't know them. Roberts is very likely to romp all over Mike Halliwell. I'd guess that Roberts takes in a minimum of 22%, but may get up to 26-27%. It's probably 50-50 whether Roberts wins the primary, but it's almost certain that he'll exceed the #2 Democrat. There are simply too many quality candidates for two even get 20%, let alone 23%.

CD8: we may see a runoff between a Republican and a former Republican.

There is an independent fantasy that's been going on since the top two was created. Some people have the belief that independent centrists will grab votes on both sides of the aisle. That'd take a special independent. Maybe Linda Parks will do it in CA-26. Anthony Adams isn't that independent.

Republicans will vote Republican and Democrats will vote Democratic. Why? Because they wouldn't have joined the party if that wasn't how they voted. Sure, some can be peeled off, but not many. Most people in the parties are mainstream on the left or right, not moderates.

Decline to State voters aren't all centrists looking for a great independent. Many of them vote Republican or Democratic in elections because those parties are closer to them. Their choice to register independent isn't necessarily because they are moderates looking for an independent. And who's to say they are looking for this independent? While a Republican candidate will often mirror Republican views, independents have no party ideology to adhere to. One person might be looking for a fiscal conservative/social moderate while another may want a social conservative/fiscal liberal.

Adams has two other problems. 1) He's raised no money. It takes money to build an organization and win votes. But that isn't the only reason his fundraising is alarming. If you have support, you can raise money. If you don't, you won't. 2) He's reviled by Republicans. Linda Parks should pull Republican votes, but Adams will have a tough time getting many. Adams won't break 10%, let alone finish top two. One of the two spots goes to Democrat Jackie Conaway. The other is up in the air.

CD51: Former Asm./Sen. Denise Morino Ducheny will battle former Asm. Juan Vargas. There are two other Democrats and three Republicans on the ballot. But they appear to be running little more than token campaigns.

This one has a chance of happening. There are three Republican candidates to divide the vote. None of them has raised any money. They could easily split the Republican vote three ways. Xanthi Gionis has the state party endorsement and that might be enough to get her 25-30% of the vote. There are four Democrats, but two will garner few votes. If Vargas and Ducheny are close, they both could top Gionis. I put this as even money.

CD30: Howard Berman vs. Brad Sherman... A Berman/Sherman November runoff is possible, but not guaranteed.

This one might be even money to happen. Republican Mark Reed has the county, but not state party endorsement. Neither he nor fellow Republican Susan Shelley have raised much money. They could split the Republican vote. But how will the Democrats go? Howard Berman hasn't answered Brad Sherman's polls showing a one-sided Sherman win. The race could go Sherman 42% Berman 20% or it could be closer at Sherman 33% Berman 29%.

Here's where it gets interesting. Berman is unlikely to win with Democratic voters, but could draw enough Republicans, if there were no Republican in the race. So Berman won't win in June, but if he makes November he could. So here's my advice to Howard Berman supporters. Work hard to get every vote, but your best chance is if Reed and Shelley divide the Republican vote. Go out there and support Susan Shelley. Every vote she takes away from Mark Reed helps Howard Berman make November. Open your wallet and write Susan Shelley a check. Howard Berman doesn't need more money and you've already maxed out with him. Volunteer on Shelley's campaign. Berman will have enough volunteers. Shelley needs your help.